Coffee has been one of the few commodities to show immunity to the coronavirus fallout and is, in the words of one analyst, an “island of stability” in otherwise rough market waters. In this report, we’ll look at the reasons for the relative strength as I explain that coffee’s intermediate-term bullish case is still supported by diminished supplies, transport-related setbacks and unfulfilled demand.
The dominant paradigm in the global coffee industry right now is that supplies remain limited – notably in Central America – while brokers and wholesalers are currently short on beans and having difficulties securing new supplies. Top producer Columbia is in the middle of its growing season, while in Brazil the latest crop hasn’t yet been harvested. Thus, high demand for beans has yet to be fully met from these two major producing nations.