World coffee inventories will fall far quicker than previously expected, to a six-year low, – even as industry data showed stocks in the US falling at their fastest pace in three years.
The US Department of Agriculture, in a twice-yearly sector report, forecast at 2.76m bags the drop in global coffee stocks over 2017-18 – well ahead of the 1.14m-bag decline previously expected.
World coffee stocks are now expected to end the season at 29.27m bags, which would be the lowest since the end of 2011-12.Indeed, the revision to the forecast for year-end stocks came as the USDA upgraded by 1.1m bags to a record high its forecast for world coffee consumption over 2017-18.
The dynamic will help shrink inventories in the European Union, the top coffee drinker, by nearly 800,000 bags to 10.5m bags – “the lowest level in five years”, and contrasting with previous expectations of a rise in stocks.
In the US itself, the worlds second-ranked coffee market, stocks will fall by 600,000 bags year on year to 6.60m bags, below a previous estimate of 7.0m bags.For Brazil, the top grower, the USDA cut its forecast for stocks at the close of 2017-18 by 1.32m bags to 2.57m bags, reflecting a downgrade to output expectations.
The estimate for the, completed, 2017-18 harvest was cut by 900,000 bags to 51.2m bags, led by worsened ideas of the arabica harvest.
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