Coffee Prices to Stumble After Surging 30% in 2021

IndexBox recently released a new report titled ‘World – Coffee (Green) – Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends, and Insights’. The following is a synopsis of the report’s key findings.

Coffee prices continue to be extremely volatile. In 2022, the average annual price of Arabica is expected to decline due to anticipated production growth, while the price of Robusta is expected to increase due to increased demand from consumers who prefer less expensive alternatives to more expensive counterparts.

Significant Trends and Insights

According to the World Bank’s October forecast, the price of Arabica coffee will decline by about 2% year on year to $4.2 per kg in 2022, while Robusta coffee will increase by 2% year on year to $2.0 per kg. Arabica prices are expected to fall as a result of expected production growth in Brazil. Robusta’s price increase is due to increased demand as consumers seek less expensive alternatives to more expensive Arabica.

Arabica coffee’s average annual price increased by 36% year on year to $4.51 per kg in 2021, while Robusta coffee’s average annual price increased by 31% year on year to $1.98 per kg during the same period. In December 2021, the average monthly price for Arabica was $5.91 per kg, while Robusta was $2.48 per kg.

Brazil, the world’s largest coffee exporter with a 35% share of global exports, shipped 1.7 million tonnes of coffee abroad from January to September 2021, an increase of 5.8% over the same period in 2020. Brazil’s coffee exports totalled $3.95 billion, up 17% year on year. Brazilian coffee’s average export price increased from $2.10 per kilogramme in January to $2.77 per kilogramme in September 2021.

Coffee Exports Worldwide

In 2020, global exports of unroasted (green) coffee decreased slightly to 6.7 million tonnes, roughly matching the previous year. Supplies increased to $16 billion in value (IndexBox estimates).

Brazil was the leading exporter, shipping 2.4 million tonnes of coffee abroad, accounting for approximately 35% of global volume. Viet Nam (1,208K tonnes) accounted for 18% (in tonnes) of total exports, placing it second behind Colombia (10%), Indonesia (5.6%), and Uganda (4.9 percent ). Ethiopia (231K tonnes), Peru (213K tonnes), Germany (211K tonnes), India (206K tonnes), Guatemala (189K tonnes), Nicaragua (149K tonnes), and Mexico (105K tonnes) all trailed the leaders significantly.

Brazil ($5 billion) continues to be the world’s largest supplier of green coffee, accounting for 31% of global exports. Colombia ($2.4B) was ranked second, accounting for 15% of total shipments. Viet Nam came in second place with a 12% share.

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