After weeks of a directionless prices trend in the front-month futures contract, coffee remains locked in a neutral trend as a mixture of tight supplies and a weak currency component have kept both bulls from gaining control of the dominant short-term trend. As we’ll discuss in this report, however, there is good reason for expecting inflation pressures to pick up in the coming months, which should eventually boost java prices.
The fact that coffee has been trendless lately isn’t surprising. By all accounts, managed money is currently on both sides of the market in a veritable tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. But even aside from current fund positioning, the fact remains that due to the lack of synchronization involving the re-opening of economies around the world, there is no clarity in the coffee market right now.