According to the USDA’s study ‘Coffee: World Markets and Trade,’ coffee consumption is expected to rise 1.8 million 60-kg bags to 165 million bags in 2021/22, while output is expected to decline 11 million bags to 164.8 million bags.
According to the study, inventories would drop to 32 million bags by the conclusion of the season, the lowest level since 2017.
The major cause of the production deficit, as it is known in the market, is a drop in Brazilian output owing to an off-year in the arabica cycle and drier-than-normal weather.
Brazil’s crop is expected to be 56.3 million bags in 2021/22, down from 69.9 million bags the previous season, according to the USDA. Domestic demand in Brazil is expected to reach a new high of 23.7 million bags, reducing exports by 9 million bags to 32 million bags.
In Brazil, ending stockpiles are expected to be reduced to only 1.5 million bags. According to the US agency, output in the world’s second-largest producer Vietnam will increase to 30.8 million bags (up 1.8 million) in 2021/22, while Colombia’s crop will be somewhat lower at 14.1 million bags (down 200,000 bags).
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