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India’s Coffee Output Dips Amidst Global Production Surge

India’s coffee output for the 2024-25 season is expected to decline slightly due to poor pre-monsoon rains, with a total of 6 million bags. The decline is primarily in arabica production, forecasted at 1.4 million bags, down from 1.5 million, while robusta production remains steady at 4.6 million bags. Global coffee production is expected to rebound by 7.1 million bags to 176.2 million, driven by recovery in Brazil and increased output in Indonesia.

India’s coffee exports are projected to decrease slightly to 4.2 million bags from last year’s 4.25 million due to lower output. Weather conditions, such as prolonged dry spells and higher-than-normal temperatures during March-May, have affected pre-monsoon showers crucial for coffee crops. Regional rainfall deficiencies have also affected flowering and crop setting in key coffee-growing regions like Karnataka.

Mixed crop setting clarity is expected in a fortnight, but current estimates are preliminary and potentially inaccurate. Coffee Exporters Association President Ramesh Rajah stated that current crop estimates are pre-monsoon and not reliable, with reluctance among traders to make forecasts until September.

Brazil’s coffee harvest is forecasted to rise by 3.6 million bags to 69.9 million, with significant gains in both arabica and robusta production. Other major producers include Vietnam’s robusta production remaining stable at 29 million bags, Colombia’s arabica production slightly increasing to 12.4 million bags, and Indonesia’s combined harvest forecasted to rebound to 10.9 million bags.

Global coffee exports are projected to rise by 3.6 million bags to 123.1 million, with consumption growing by 3.1 million bags to 170.6 million. Ending stocks are expected to increase by 1.9 million bags to 25.8 million. Overall, the USDA report highlights a challenging year for India’s coffee industry, impacted by adverse weather conditions.

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