Following a particularly dry winter, Brazil’s forthcoming coffee crop could benefit from some rain ahead of the crucial flowering season.
As seen in this Gro Navigator for Agriculture graphic, Brazil’s Arabica coffee growing regions have received more than 40mm of rain in the last two weeks, more than three times the amount received during the same period last year. In the regions, both soil moisture levels and land surface temperatures are rising, approaching levels last seen in 2019, when Brazil had a big coffee crop.
Following a year of severe weather, farmers in Sao Paulo state are hoping for a stronger coffee crop next year due to the hopeful rains and lowering drought conditions.
Brazil is the world’s greatest coffee-producing country, producing 40% of the popular Arabica bean. Global Arabica coffee production is dropping this year, as Brazil’s Arabica trees finish the off-year of the biennial production cycle after an intense in-season drought, and global ending stockpiles are likely to fall.
Wildcards, on the other hand, can still have an impact on the crop the following year. The protracted drought may have overstressed the trees, negatively damaging the crop the next year. And the return of a La Nina global climate event later this year could bring dry weather to Brazil once more.