This morning, December arabica coffee (KCZ22) is down -5.30 (-2.78%), and November ICE Robusta coffee (RMX22) is down -5 (-0.22%).
Coffee prices are moderately lower this morning, with arabica posting a 13-month nearest-futures low and robusta posting a 3-and-a-quarter-month nearest-futures low. In the past month, coffee prices have been under pressure due to expectations of a bumper crop in Brazil next year. Brazil’s favorable climate has aided the flowering of coffee trees and improved the outlook for next year’s coffee harvest.
Vietnamese robusta coffee supplies are bearish for robusta prices. Vietnam’s General Department of Customs reported on October 7 that Vietnam exported a record-breaking 1.73 million metric tons of coffee in the 2021/22 season, which ended on September 30. Vietnam is the largest producer of robusta coffee beans in the world.
As a result of rising global inflation and fears of a recession, coffee demand concerns and fund selling of coffee futures, coffee prices are also falling.
Ample coffee supplies in the United States are bearish for coffee prices. The Green Coffee Association reported on Monday that U.S. September green coffee inventories increased by 5.2% year-over-year to 6,378,478 million bags.
Cecafe reported on October 11 that Brazil’s September exports of green coffee rose +7.1% year-over-year to 3.1 million bags, which is bearish for prices.