The recent decline in global coffee prices is not expected to have an effect on Indian coffee exports, as the majority of the stock has already been shipped to buyers.
The majority of shipments have been sold at the higher prices that prevailed throughout the year, and exporters are currently awaiting the arrival of new coffee from the country’s ongoing harvest before entering into new export contracts.
Also see: Coffee Retail Prices On The Rise; Here’s Why Your Cup Of Coffee Is More Expensive
From January 1 to November 4 of 2022, shipments of 353,226 tonnes are up 9% compared to the same period in the previous year. In the previous year, exports reached an all-time high of 394,393 tonnes.
The forecast for the coffee harvest in Brazil and Vietnam, the world’s two largest coffee-producing nations, has changed due to a shift in the weather.
Brazil reduces coffee production forecast
In September, Brazil’s food supply agency Conab revised its estimate for the country’s coffee output for 2021-22 (from October to September) to 50.38 million bags (each bag weighing 60 kg) from 53.43 million bags in May, due to scant rainfall and the impact of last year’s severe frost.
Futures prices have declined as a result of optimistic forecasts for the next harvest, which have been prompted by the occurrence of frequent rainfall and bright sunshine in subsequent weeks.
ICE futures prices have decreased by 15 to 20 percent to $1.75 per pound. Prior to two months ago, prices hovered around $2.12 per pound.
“Most of the stock of Indian exporters who signed export contracts when prices were high has been shipped. Early the following year, after the harvest in India has concluded, they will enter into new contracts.
Also, Indian coffee prices have not fallen as much as global coffee prices, according to N Sathappan, director of SLN Coffee, who added that the current level of global coffee prices is not terrible for exports.