The Corn market continues the steady march lower. A growing number of market watchers are suggesting that Corn will not stop until it hits somewhere below the three dollar level. This move started in mid-October 2019 slowly grinding lower and then accelerating lower in early March 2020. During this time July Corn has lost over a dollar a bushel.
The fundamentals are no mystery, large crop with a growing carry over as Covid-19 has brutalized the energy/ethanol demand.
My Model tells us that Corn is in a definite down trend needing a close this Friday at or above $3.83 to reverse the trend. The Positive Indicator is firmly mired within the first Standard Deviation of the long term average. The Negative Indicator is above the Second Standard Deviation of the long term average. The Negative Indicator continues to move slowly toward *Positive Equivalency but not there yet, ergo I am patiently waiting. I might wait too long which given the New Normal is okay with me.
Battered and bruised by the Coffee market I continue to watch this market very closely. Last week the July Coffee market broke $10.80 to turn the model long term bearish. I knew it was possible but did not think very probable.wrong. So what do we know about the Coffee market. We know the main stories impacting Coffee are Covid-19 driven demand destruction along with new crop Coffee harvest approaching.