Coffee has finally confirmed the intermediate-term bottom we’ve been waiting for since the spring. In this report, we’ll examine the latest fundamentals which suggest that a new (and sustainable) java bull market is now underway. I’ll further show that persistent dollar weakness will likely push coffee prices higher in the coming months.
In my previous commentary, I made the case that the technical and fundamental weight of evidence supported a coffee market turnaround by later this summer. I noted at that time (July 11) that while the coffee futures price had technically confirmed a bottom per the rules of my trading discipline, I needed to see the futures price make a higher peak before making a renewed long commitment. As it turned out, the turnaround occurred sooner than I anticipated and the coffee market bulls have been in control of the market ever since the middle of July.