Your morning Starbucks run may soon become obsolete. In the coming months, coffee experts predict that an increasing number of consumers will opt to brew their coffee at home rather than purchase it to-go from coffee shops. Due to rising inflation and the ever-present possibility of a recession, the change is primarily a financial one. Nevertheless, according to Vanusia Nogueira, the executive director of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), this shift is the result of a chain of events that begins with climate change.
Nogueira explained in a recent interview with Reuters that the international coffee supply has been unable to meet demand. In the coffee year 2021/22, total production reached 167.2 million 60-kilogram bags, a 2.1% decrease from the prior year. Meanwhile, global coffee consumption rose 3.3% to 170.3 million bags.
Variable covid-19 cases, lingering supply chain problems, political instability, and, of course, climate change may have all contributed to this subpar harvest. Nogueira told Reuters, “We have many climate problems in the leading producing regions.”
And a recent study predicts that this problem will only worsen. Climate change will make it significantly more difficult to grow and cultivate coffee plants in current coffee-producing regions by 2050, according to researchers.
Low supply plus high demand equals price increases
Americans across the country are experiencing the effects of inflation, and nowhere is this more apparent than at the supermarket. Unfortunately, coffee has been severely impacted as prices continue to skyrocket globally and nationally. According to Tasting Table, the price of ground coffee in the United States increased 39% in August compared to the same month the previous year. In addition, the cost of coffee in the EU increased by an average of 16.9% between August 2021 and August 2022. Nogueira forecasts that coffee prices will remain relatively unchanged in 2023.