Coffee Prices Slip on Higher Brazil Coffee Exports

Coffee prices are moderately lower today due to Brazil’s increased green coffee exports and the rallying Brazilian real against the dollar. Concerns about excessive heat in Brazil and drought in Vietnam are supporting coffee prices. Brazil’s Minas Gerais region received 0.8 mm of rain in the past week, which accounts for 30% of Brazil’s arabica crop. Vietnam’s coffee exports fell -14.2% m/m and -48.8% y/y to 43,725 MT, while Brazil’s robusta exports rose more than fourfold to 624,999 bags. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center declared an El Nino weather event, which is likely to be supportive of coffee prices. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service forecasts world coffee production in 2023/24 to increase by 2.5% y/y to 174.3 million bags.

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